Van der Poel vs. Van Aert: A Data-Driven Primer on the Greatest Rivalry in Pro Cycling

Wout van Aert vs. Mathieu van der Poel, we all know it’s the rivalry of the modern era.

Cycling’s terrible twosome have been trading attacks through the muck of mid-winter cyclocross and the filth of Flanders for more than a dozen years, after all. Their careers have intertwined, and their names are now inseparable.

The next round of cycling’s favorite prizefight takes place Sunday in a muddy field in Liévins at the UCI Cyclocross World Championships.

But who will win, WVA or MVDP?

The data behind this most popcorn-worthy rivalry gives hints at who will be wearing rainbows Sunday night.

It also illustrates why the sport’s wildly celebrated comparison may now be a misnomer.

A tale of two winters

Not even Van Aert’s performance guru Mathieu Heijboer is backing his Belgian buddy for Sunday’s cyclocross worlds.

“I give Wout a 10 percent chance, Mathieu a 90 percent chance,” the Visma-Lease a Bike staffer told Sporza earlier this week.

Heijboer is no fool.

After a sweep of seven wins in seven races this winter, odds are loaded toward Van der Poel earning a historic seventh elite world title this weekend. Not even a boggy, leg-blunting course that favors Van Aert’s huge engine is enough to level the bets.

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By contrast, Van Aert raced little and won less this cyclocross season.

Tarmac miles and Spanish training camps were Wout’s focus while he thought forward to the treasures of the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix.

The calendar – and some untimely injuries – conspired so Van Aert and Van der Poel shared only one CX startline this winter.

WVA was gazumped by sloppy crashes, and you-know-who went on to win by more than a minute.

Headline stats: Van der Poel vs. Van Aert

2024-2025 cyclocross season:

• MVDP: 7 wins in 7 starts
• WVA: 2 wins in 5 starts
• Head-to-head races, MVDP vs. WVA: 1 win-0 wins

Cyclocross world championships career:

• MVDP: 6 x elite titles, 2 x junior
• WVA: 3 x elite titles, 1 x U23
• Direct world title head-to-heads, MVDP vs. WVA: 7 wins-4 wins

Road monument career:

• MVDP: 6 in total (3 x Flanders, 2 x Roubaix, 1 x San Remo)
• WVA: 1 x San Remo
• Direct monument head-to-heads, MVDP vs. WVA: 3 wins-1 win

Grand tour stage victories (not head-to-head):

• MVDP: 2 x stage wins from 5 grand tours
• WVA: 12 x stage wins from 7 grand tours

Average CX races per season in four years since 2021-22:

• MVDP: 10 (including only two races in 2021-22 due to injury. Average excluding 2021-22: 12)
• WVA: 10

Average road race days per season in four years since 2021:

• MVDP: 43
• WVA: 52

Van der Poel has form on his side and fireworks in his heels as he races toward Liévins.

He’s also got the weight of history behind him. Van Aert hasn’t beaten van der Poel at cyclocross worlds since Valkenberg in 2018.

But this is Woutjie. Nothing is off the table.

The story behind the stats: Different ambitions, different palmarès

The “big” data sides with Van der Poel for Sunday’s big brawl. The Dutchman regularly outdoes his Belgian foe, whether at ‘cross worlds or their coveted monuments.

But the stats don’t say it all.

The numbers beneath the twosome’s dozen-year duel reveal how their priorities shifted different directions since they were mud-hungry high-schoolers.

The fact that Van Aert wasn’t even planning to race ‘cross worlds until last week speaks volumes.

Visma-Lease a Bike’s mountain-slaying, cobble-bashing, mud-munching centerpiece has been leaning toward the road more heavily with every year of the post-pandemic era.

Van Aert says he’s not obsessed with the monuments, but we all know a victory at De Ronde or “Hell” would mean a lot more to him and Visma-Lease a Bike than “another” cyclocross title.

He would far rather beat Van der Poel on the roads into Oudenaarde than on a swampy circuit around a field in the Limburg.

For Van Aert, cyclocross has come at the expense of the spring. CX has been relegated to a joyride interval session slotted into a road training program.

And while Van der Poel is the monster of the cobblestone monuments, he’s managed to tweak the dials to use a busy winter as both a primer for ‘cross worlds and as a trampoline toward the spring.

The Alpecin-Deceuninck team wouldn’t dare say no to MVDP’s decision, either. He was the heart, lungs, face, and sponsor-magnet of the squad until the recent Jasper Philipsen era.

But if Van Aert is all-in on the monuments, why does Van der Poel so regularly outpunch him on the pavé?

Of course, form and fortune count for a lot. But maybe race selection and year-long priorities do, too.

Van der Poel more recently stripped back his classics calendar to a half-dozen races and hit them all with a sledgehammer.

Van Aert, hunting base racing for grand tour season, burned the candle long and hard with grueling stage-racing at premier events like Paris-Nice or Tirreno-Adriatico.

An all-season swiss-knife and a one-day mercenary

The Van Aert vs. Van der Poel comparison is a no-brainer, but that comparison is becoming flawed.

Visma-Lease a Bike has got itself one of the most versatile riders in modern cycling – Van Aert is a one-day racer, a grand tour multi-tool, and some say he’s a GC leader in waiting.

And Mathieu?

Beyond the occasional leadout for Philipsen, he’s a lone-wolf mercenary, and the one-day king of the modern generation. Heck, he doesn’t even enjoy the hype of the Tour de France.

The Van der Poel vs. Van Aert parallel may have become kinked, but their decade-long rivalry is too juicy to ignore.

Even Van der Poel is hyped for the next chapter in cycling’s favorite – if flawed – face-off.

“A world championship is always different with or without Wout,” the Dutchman told Het Nieuwsblad last weekend. “It can only make the championships more beautiful for the fans, too.

“And you never know with Wout. I have to keep him in mind.”

All this said and done, Michael Vanthourenhout will probably end up beating them both on Sunday.