Unbound Gravel is here, and that means it’s time for our annual attempt to predict the future.
After days of rain in the leadup to Unbound Gravel, race conditions Saturday are shaping up to be a bit different from the dry Unbound of 2024. With the race changing so much depending on weather, last year’s results mean little for trying to predict this year’s outcome. Winning a hot and dry Unbound of 2024 versus a Mudbound™ à la the chaos of the 2023 Unbound — those are two entirely different things.
But we’re going to make some picks nevertheless, based on reams of data and hunches about gravel’s top riders.
Dive into the Crystal Ball of Gravel with us as we choose the key athletes to watch on Saturday in the now deeply muddy fields of Emporia, Kansas.
Women’s Contenders
While it’s overly reductive to say “so and so is the hungriest to win,” it’s a question we’re getting asked a lot. While we can’t comment on hunger levels, we do have some thoughts on who is looking good for Unbound. Without further ado, here’s our women’s predictions in *no* particular order for top-step contenders on Saturday.
- Karolina Mignoń – Karolina has brought home two career wins from Traka 360, a second place at Gravel Worlds, and a recent win at scorching hot Gravel Locos in Texas. With her 2024 Unbound performance cursed with mechanicals, we have never seen her at her fullest form at this race. Her other performances in 2024 are some of the most consistent of all the gravel women’s field, with the vast majority of her 10+ races of her 2024 calendar being a top-5 finish.
- Sofía Gomez Villafañe – A rider who needs no introduction, and is on arguably the hottest streak of the field for 2025, not to mention the couple Life Time Grands Prix that she’s won. She has proven multiple times that she knows how to win this race. Sofia is known for her tactical racing, and if anyone’s delivering that result, it’s Sofia.
- Lauren De Crescenzo – She has won this race before, and after securing ninth after flatting that ruined her five minute lead on the women’s field last year (that shattered the group that tried to reel her back!), she wants this win again.
- Melisa Rollins – Our 2025 predictions said that Melisa will win the Life Time Grand Prix, and from a points perspective winning Unbound would surely get her closer to fulfilling that. She’s possibly one of the least marked riders, and even though some may think she’s at a disadvantage due to her recent injuries, we think otherwise. Last year’s second place in the Grand Prix and her dominant Leadville win are still fresh reminders of her strengths.
- Our Dark Horse: Axelle Dubau-Prévôt – A second place at the Traka 360 just a few weeks ago at 28 years old? Unreal. She is who our eye will be on closest to possibly be the 2025 version of Rosa Kloser.
Other notable riders:
The most obvious pick missing from our list is of course last year’s winner, Rosa Kloser. She was the definition of dark horse with everyone thinking “Who is she? And how is she in these final selections?” But she’s marked like any winner of Unbound, so winning in this year’s lineup will be much harder than last year. Cecily Decker as well, who placed second at Sea Otter this year, and Sarah Sturm who placed third at Traka 360 came to mind. A predominant exception as well is Lauren Stephens, who has won a lot of races this year, but predominantly on the road. Will she have what it takes to bring home a dominant performance like she’s done at drier gravel races than what will presumably be a more muddy affair on Saturday? We will be watching on the live steam to see.
Men’s Contenders
We are joining the broken record gravel club that “the men’s race is the deepest we’ve ever seen it.” Here’s who could rise above the rest.
- Petr Vakoč – He’s been chasing a win at Unbound since 2023 since his painfully close second place finish to Keegan, which involved Petr’s sprint line getting interrupted by an amateur rider. Now with pros having their own finishing chute there is no doubt this will make a difference in the men’s and women’s (inevitable) finishing sprint.
- Alexey Vermeulen – There is going to come a day where Alexey wins Unbound — it’s just a matter of when. No one who is a current contender other than potentially Keegan Swenson knows this course and its demands as deeply as Alexey – proven in his consistent performance and second place finish year in the 2024 Life Time Grand Prix. If you see Alexey and Willie on the podium this year, you say we told you so.
- Keegan Swenson – The man, the myth, the legend of gravel has picked up some big wins and bad luck this year. We know he’s vocalized some issues with back pain that manifested in a difficult Cape Epic for him, and seen as well potentially in his performance at Whiskey Fifty. It’s no secret that last year was not his year at Unbound, but there is arguably no one in the field who goes deeper than he does to do what he needs to do to bring home the win — see his finishing photos from this year’s Sea Otter. Keegan’s multi-year dominance in off road racing far transcends a short season of difficulty. Marked or not, our eyes will be peeled on him on Saturday.
- Matt Beers – He’s a diesel engine and ultra experienced Unbound and off-road racer. There isn’t a gravel fan that wouldn’t put him on this list. His 2025 resume is already stacked: a win at BWR CA, top-5 at Levi’s Gran Fondo and second place finishes at Traka 200 and Sea Otter respectively. Not to mention all these occurred after the fatigue of his Cape Epic with Keegan. Matt is a machine ready to rumble into this year’s Unbound, and if he wins not a soul should be surprised.
- Mattia De Marchi – Mattia’s fifth place finish at Unbound 2024 caught a lot of attention for Americans, who may have been more unfamiliar with the Italian’s European palmares. With a string of Traka 360 wins in a row and a sixth place finish after racing almost the entire Traka 360 without a front brake due to a mechanical, he’ll be coming to Kansas ready for a win.
- Our Dark Horse: Mads Schmidt – The recent Traka 200 men’s winner will be the darkest of horses on Saturday. Could someone relatively unknown and fast take the Men’s race like we saw with the women’s last year? It would be some break-the-internet racing if it occurred, and we’re here for it.
Other notable riders:
With recent injuries occurring for two of the top male contenders in the field – Dylan Johnson and Payson McElveen – that reduces our list to a few final major players. Pete Stetina who is a consistent powerhouse at this race comes to mind easily as well as Tobias Tongstad fresh off the top step of the 2025 Traka 360. And Greg Van Avermaet is ready for the win after having terrible luck last year and still finishing 7th.
Stay tuned for our live coverage tomorrow on Velo!