By John Wilcockson
Photo: Graham Watson (file photo)
Photo: AFP
Only four Tour de France winners have won Liège-Bastogne-Liège:Eddy Merckx (a record five times), Bernard Hinault and Ferdi Kubler (bothtwice), and Jacques Anquetil (once).
Lance Armstrong would like to be the fifth.
This Sunday will see the Texan on the start line at Liège foronly the fifth time in his career. Prior to his cancer diagnosis, he finishedsecond in 1994, sixth in 1995 and second again in 1996. He returned towhat is the world’s oldest bicycle classic (founded in 1894) only lastyear, when he finished 65th, 8:12 behind winner Paolo Bettini, after ridingthe 258.5km race in support of U.S. Postal teammate George Hincapie.
This year is different.
Why? Well, for starters, Armstrong has said he wants to win this time.Next, he is already on excellent form, as he showed last Sunday at theAmstel Gold Race. In the Dutch classic — held on a course about half anhour north of Liège — the four-time Tour champion was one of thestrongest riders in the 10-man winning break; and only when he realizedhe couldn’t win (solo winner Alexandre Vinokourov was too far ahead beforethe climb to the finish) did he ease back and cross the line in eighth.
The change of dates that put the Amstel Gold Race a week ahead of Liège-Bastogne-Liège has also helped Armstrong, by giving him a reference point in his condition before tackling the more important of the two World Cup classics. At Amstel, he said he was still feeling the effects of a stomach virus that forced him to pull out of the Circuit de la Sarthe earlier this month. Since last Sunday, back at his Spanish base in Gerona, Armstrong has had a good week of training to bring him to his first peak of the year.
On Saturday, he flew into Liège to spend the morning lookingover key parts of the Liège-Bastogne-Liège course: specificallythe seventh of the 10 categorized climbs, the rural Côte de la Redoute,which is 2km long with 15-percent pitches in the second half; and the 10thclimb, the Côte de St. Nicolas, in the Liège suburbs, whichis a kilometer-long wall averaging 12 percent. Its summit is 5.5km fromthe finish. Armstrong knows that a winner has to be in the front groupemerging from la Redoute, and that St. Nicolas is the potential springboardto victory.
If there is still a group at the front after St. Nicolas, there is onelast “unofficial” uphill, climbing for 1km to the ridge above Liègein the Ans neighborhood. The finish line comes on the ridge, 350 metersafter the left turn at the top of the hill. This is where he took his 1996second-place finish in a three-man sprint behind Pascal Richard of Switzerland,with another Swiss veteran, Mauro Gianetti, in third.
The course has changed considerably since 1996. The “core” of the raceused to be the five successive climbs within 20km around the towns of Trois-Pontsand Stavelot. There are now only three. This has meant that the pelotonis much bigger coming to the final 40km. And instead of the infamous laRedoute climb reducing the number of contenders from say 25 to five, apack of 100 may be cut to only 25.
In fact, in 2001, regrouping after la Redoute meant that some 60 mencame together before they reached the decisive St. Nicolas climb. Lastyear, a breakaway group actually went clear on the hill before la Redoute,the Côte de la Vecquée, 52km from the finish. Armstrong andall the other favorites are aware of that, and so we might see the topmen being more aggressive earlier in the race this year.
On Saturday, steady rain and swirling clouds blanketed the green hillsand forests of the Ardennes, making the roads slippery. It was stillraining heavily Saturday evening. Rain showers are again in the forecastfor Sunday, but they will be isolated, with a chance of a thunderstorm lateafternoon. But knowing weather forecasts, it’s most likely to be dry. Temperatureswill be in the upper 50s Fahrenheit.
There won’t be snow, though, as there was in 1980, when Hinault wonLiège-Bastogne-Liège in a long solo break, finishing almost10 minutes ahead of runner-up Hennie Kuiper. If Armstrong wins by10 seconds on Sunday he will be a very happy man.
The Italian factor
Last year, Italians took the top-five places at this race. Indeed,four of the past six wins have gone to riders from south of the Alps: twovictories for Michele Bartoli, two for Paolo Bettini. Will an Italian winagain Sunday, the hilliest classic takes place on the rugged roads of theArdennes?
Bettini won’t win because he is still sidelined from a crash at Ghent-Wevelgemtwo and a half weeks ago. Bartoli, however, is almost back to his bestform and has an excellent chance of taking a third Liège win fiveyears after his second. In this past Wednesday’s Flèche Wallonne,the Fassa Bortolo team leader was the fastest climber on the first twopassages of the Mur de Huy, and later scaled back his effort to be readyfor this Sunday’s race.
If there is any rider that Bartoli fears it is his national rival FrancescoCasagrande of Lampre, who also used the Flèche as a training event,after testing his legs on the early climbs. Last Sunday, Casagrande madea superb solo attack that broke the field at the Amstel Gold Race on acourse that had shorter, lower hills than those featured in this Sunday’sWorld Cup race. Perhaps this time Casagrande’s aggression will pay off,as the last of the 10 climbs, St. Nicolas, is only 6km from the finishof the 258.5km race. It’s a hill that is tough enough for a power climberlike Casagrande to break away alone, particularly where the grade kicksup over the final 300 meters of the near-2km ascent.
The other Italians who could figure in the final battle at Liègeare Danilo Di Luca of Saeco (who was the fastest of the beaten pack atthe Flèche), his teammate Mirko Celestino (who was fourth last year)and perhaps Davide Rebellin of Gerolsteiner (who also is on superb form,but the shoulder he injured in a crash at the Flèche may preventhim from starting).Vying with the Italians for the win this Sunday are up to 15 riders from nine countries, headed by the consistent Michael Boogerd of Rabobank, Amstel Gold winner Alex Vinokourov of Telekom and America’s top two hopes, Lance Armstrong of U.S. Postal-Berry Floor and Tyler Hamilton of CSC. Armstrong twice came in second at Liège prior to his cancer years, while Hamilton is showing some of the best form of his career right now. His team bossBjarne Riis said Thursday that Hamilton has a podium chance, particularlyif the weather is bad. In fact, after a week of warm sunshine, a cold frontis due to blow though the Ardennes region on Saturday, bringing heavy rainto Liège, although conditions could be dry again by Sunday. But thethermometer won’t get beyond the low-60s for the race.Here is a rundown on the 20 favorites for Sunday:
Bartoli, Casagrande, Di Luca, BoogerdArmstrong, Hamilton, Rebellin, VinokourovKessler, Celestino, Ivanov, MayoVan Petegem, Vandenbroucke, Verbrugghe, Pereiro, Astarloa, Brochard,Rumsas, Ullrich
Tech Note
It’s interesting to see that at this race the entire U.S. Postal team is now set up with those new 2004 Dura-Ace groups.
