Who might muscle in on a MVDP vs Mads rematch Sunday on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix?
It’s a similar but different pack of protagonists from those blown away last weekend by mighty Mathieu van der Poel at the Tour of Flanders.
Any “outsider”, domestique, or breakaway chancer can have their day in a race as wild as Roubaix. And this year is no different.
From Van der Poel’s own wingman Jasper Philipsen to Mads Pedersen‘s supersize sidekick Jonathan Milan, any racer with strong legs and a steely will could cross the line first in Roubaix’s ancient velodrome.
Before we look at who might upturn the MVDP vs Mads narrative, let’s frame these two favorites for Sunday’s slick and slippery ride through “Hell”:
MVDP’s presence caused Pedersen to have a tactical brain-fart at Tour of Flanders, and the Dutchman simply swatted the peloton aside. It seems even a quirky new chicane won’t get in Van der Poel’s way Sunday.
Pedersen will line out at the start in Compiègne less banged up after his crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen and eyeing a parcours that plays more to his muscling power than the bumps and bergs of Flanders.
Some say Pedersen and his brawny Lidl-Trek accomplices hold the only key to unlocking MVDP in the “Hell of the North”.
Meanwhile, on-a-tear U.S. star Matteo Jorgenson is on the sidelines and the reigns on his Visma-Lease a Bike team have been handed elsewhere.
Matej Mohorič, another of Roubaix’s perennial dark horses, is also out of action after he crashed at De Ronde.
So here we go: Five outside contenders for the men’s Paris-Roubaix.
Nils Politt (UAE Team Emirates)
- E3 Saxo Classic: 7th
- Gent-Wevelgem: 27th
- Tour of Flanders: 3rd
- Roubaix résumé (2021-23): DNF, 22nd, 35th
- Shoutout for 2nd in 2019, 7th in 2018
Sure, Nils Politt ended up on the podium at the Tour of Flanders last weekend as a result of Michael Matthews’ controversial relegation.
But there’s no denying that the towering German watt-monster is having his best spring since his glittering cobblestone campaign in 2019, where he hit a top-5 at De Ronde and backed it up with second in Roubaix.
Second at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad this February and 7th in E3 Saxo Classic shows the 30-year-old wasn’t just lucky with his monument podium place in Oudenaarde last weekend.
This year, Politt is a deserving podium finisher.
And better still for Politt, his UAE Team Emirates team has become a bit of a classics super-squad.
Co-captain Tim Wellens is on a streak of hot form, while Mikel Bjerg and Antonio Morgado followed Politt into Oudenaarde for 4th and 5th last weekend.
“I was super happy with last week’s podium in Flanders and the results of the whole team who rode really well with 3 guys in the top-5,” Politt said.
“I’m happy with my condition and could be up there in the final so it’s positive for the objectives ahead,” he said. “Obviously Paris-Roubaix is a very different race with different characteristics but we are focused and motivated to go for a good result.”
Dylan Van Baarle and Christophe Laporte (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Van Baarle:
- E3 Saxo Classic: 88th
- Gent-Wevelgem: Did not race
- Tour of Flanders: 83rd
- Roubaix résumé (2021-23): OTL, 1, DNF
Laporte:
- E3 Saxo Classic: Did not race
- Gent-Wevelgem: Did not race
- Tour of Flanders: Did not race
- Roubaix resume (2021-23): 6th, DNF, 10th
Yes, it’s cheating to roll two riders into one, but hey, who cares? Visma-Lease a Bike’s two Roubaix-bustin’ leaders can be seen as one for this analysis.
Both Dylan Van Baarle and Christophe Laporte will line out in Compiègne with the potential to either put a firework under the pavé or pull out midway through the race.
Laporte has been sick since Milan-San Remo and is only just making a comeback. And Van Baarle has likewise been under the weather and off the radar most spring.
But the “Hell of the North” can favor racing nous as much as fitness and form, and these two monument veterans have got a big bag of both.
Van Baarle usurped the MVDP vs WVA show at Paris-Roubaix in 2022, out-kicked everybody except Julian Alaphilippe in the Leuven worlds in 2021, and looked like he was stealthily riding himself back into shape last weekend before he was sapped by the terrible weather of De Ronde.
“Dylan was really good and was on track before Flanders. He’s just having a lot of trouble with the cold weather these days” sport director Arthur Van Dongen told Wielerflits of Van Baarle’s off-key final last weekend.
“I am convinced that he [Van Baarle] will play a leading role within our team, and within the race, at Paris-Roubaix,” Van Dongen said. “Even though things have gone wrong so far, we have every confidence in this.”
And Laporte?
The flying Frenchman didn’t get to the velodrome in 2022 when his wheel folded beneath him, but he’s been elbowing with the best at almost every other cobblestone monument otherwise.
If the 31-year-old has shaken his sickness and held on to the form that scored him two top-5s at the “Opening Weekend”, Vimsa-Lease a Bike might manage just fine without the wounded WVA.
For MVDP, Van Baarle and Laporte are a dangerous double-act.
“Mathieu van der Poel naturally has an exceptionally high level, which he shows time and time again,” Van Dongen said. “But more riders are now coming into their own and can play the game. That gives us opportunities.”
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
- E3 Saxo Classic: Did not race
- Gent-Wevelgem: 4th
- Tour of Flanders: Did not race
- Big shoutout for Milan-San Remo and Brugge de Panne: Both 1st
- Roubaix résumé (2021-23): 41st, did not race 2022, 2nd
If MVDP doesn’t deliver a second-straight Roubaix rock to Alpecin Deceuinck this weekend, his wingman Jasper Philipsen could we do it.
The Belgian super-sprinter is on a tear with three wins already this season – including, of course, Milan-San Remo.
Philipsen got an eye for the cobbles of Roubaix last year when he out-sprinted Wout Van Aert for the second step of the podium, and has been dreaming of going one better ever since.
“I will need a good day and certain scenarios should be in my favor. I would like to win, but I will be just as happy if Mathieu makes it,” Philipsen told the media in his pre-race conference.
“Arriving with two at the velodrome would be a dream scenario,” Philipsen said. “How would we solve that situation? We’ll see at the moment.”
Van der Poel will no doubt play top dog in Alpecin-Deceuninck’s strategy on Sunday.
But you can bet Philipsen won’t be so far behind.
“If we can create a situation like we did last year, I think that benefits both of us,” Van der Poel said Thursday. “We can win the race in different ways and that’s for sure our strength as a duo.
“Jasper proved last year that he’s one of the favourites as well,” Van der Poel said. “That was really impressive.”
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
- E3 Saxo Classic: 16th
- Gent-Wevelgem: 14th
- Tour of Flanders: 41st
- Roubaix résumé (2021-23): DNF, 3rd, 5th
It all went a bit wrong for Stefan Küng last weekend when he crashed in Tour of Flanders, but that’s not going to stop Swissman pursuing his long-elusive palmarès-topping result on the pavé Sunday.
Küng has been at the front end of all the heavy classics this spring, and his squad has become one of the most off-radar threats to the Van der Poel monopoly.
“I was ruled out of the race without being able to play my cards today,” Küng said after Tour of Flanders. “We just need to switch mentally and now focus on Paris-Roubaix.”
Time trial ace Küng has got all the horsepower he needs to pound his way over the pavé Sunday, and his past two results in “Hell” prove he knows how to apply it.
With Laurence Pithie, Lewis Askey, and a fleet of strapping Franco-Swiss rouleurs on the roster for Sunday, Groupama-FDJ has the heft to help Küng become the first Swiss winner since Fabian Cancellara reigned supreme in 2013.
“We would have preferred to get to Paris-Roubaix with better results, but perhaps this Tour of Flanders will be forgotten next Sunday by a very good result in Roubaix,” sport director Frédéric Guesdon said.
Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek)
- E3 Saxo Classic: N/A
- Gent-Wevelgem: 5th
- Tour of Flanders: 67th
- Roubaix résumé (2021-23): DNF, did not race 2022, DNF
And you thought Jonathan Milan was just a strapping trackie-turned-sprinter? Well it seems that just like fellow brawny Italian steamtrain Filippo Ganna, Milan is a bit of a classics hotshot too.
Milan moved his way right to the center of Mads Pedersen and Lidl-Trek’s classics core this season.
He was barreling around with MVDP at the front of Gent-Wevelgem two weeks ago before he finished fifth, and led home the second chase group to finish seventh at Dwars Door Vlaanderen.
Paris-Roubaix and its punishing pavé should suit 84kg Milan a whole lot better than the endless bergs of northern Belgium.
While Milan’s Roubaix résumé so far isn’t anything to be excited for, his form this spring suggests that could change after another 57km of Hellish cobbles Sunday.
Also, some bet-hedging honorable mentions:
Oier Lazkano, Fred Wright, Oliver Naesen, Josh Tarling, Laurenz Rex, Tim Merlier, Yves Lampaert, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Alberto Bettiol,