After yesterday’s UCI Cycling World Championships, there is no longer any doubt that Mathieu van der Poel is the best classics rider in the world. The Dutchman had already taken two monuments this year at Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix, adding to his list of road palmarès that includes Amstel Gold Race, Strade Bianche, and two Ronde van Vlaanderen.
But this, in Van der Poel’s own words, is maybe his “biggest victory on the road.”
In stunning style with the panache you’d expect from a five-time world cyclocross champion and all-around superstar, Van der Poel went clear of the best one-day riders in the world with 23 km to go on the horrendous Glasgow circuits. But before we talk about the finish, let’s rewind to the start in Edinburgh.
Also read: Mathieu van der Poel, the one-day racer of his generation? ‘This almost completes my career’
Seven hours before the rainbow jersey would be awarded in Glasgow, the UCI Cycling World Championships road race began under the cloudy skies of Edinburgh, Scotland. While the post-race drama has focused on the Glasgow street circuits, the efforts made beforehand cannot be discounted.
Jasper Stuyven (6th) and Neilson Powless (11th) are the highest-placing finishers who posted their power data from the World Championships road race. Wout Van Aert (2nd) and Tadej Pogačar (3rd) also uploaded their rides to Strava but without power data.
Throughout this article, we’ll be analyzing Stuyven’s and Powless’ power data from key points of the race and comparing them to Van Aert’s and Pogačar’s efforts. For the vast majority of the race, Van der Poel was glued to Van Aert’s wheel, and Pogačar was glued to Van der Poel’s. There are many different factors that affect power data, including drafting, aerodynamics, efficiency, calibration, manufacturer, weather, temperature, and more. But we’ll do our best to estimate the efforts of Van der Poel and Co. during the hardest World Championships in recent history.
Chances are, you probably didn’t even watch the first 90 km of the 271 km World Championships road race, and I don’t blame you. The race favorites sat in the peloton, eating food and taking nature breaks (both kinds, for Van der Poel) for the better part of two hours. But that doesn’t mean it was easy.
Jasper Stuyven, listed at 78kg, had a normalized power (NP) of 328w during this “easy part” of the race. Most amateur riders would struggle to hold this pace for two hours, but Stuyven still had more than four hours — and much harder racing — to go.
Stuyven – First 90km
Time: 1:58:17
Average Power: 272 w (3.5 w/kg)
Normalized Power: 328 w (4.2 w/kg)
With 180 km to go, the peloton began the longest climb of the day, Crow Road (5.5 km at 4 percent). Those gradients don’t typically trouble the world’s best bike riders, but most amateur riders wouldn’t have survived more than two minutes with the peloton on this climb.
Led by Belgium, Australia, and others, the peloton went up Crow Road at over 6 w/kg, including pushing nearly 7 w/kg for the first few minutes. I cannot stress enough how hard this “warm-up” climb was before the peloton even began the Glasgow city circuits — Stuyven pushed 506 w for the first eight minutes.
Stuyven – Crow Road
Time: 10:25
Average Power: 479 w (6.1 w/kg)
Normalized Power: 494 w (6.3 w/kg)
First eight minutes of Crow Road: 506 w (6.5 w/kg)
After a quick descent, the peloton went straight onto the Glasgow city circuits. There was much ado about…a lot, actually, regarding the Glasgow circuit, which features 50 turns per lap. Descriptions of the course have ranged from “dangerous” and “technical” to “stunning” and “hell.”
Taking a closer look at Styuven’s race file, we can see why many riders compared the Glasgow World Championships to a cyclocross race. It is acceleration after acceleration, climb after climb, and corner after corner. There are no let-ups, except for the occasional five-second coast into a corner that probably isn’t wet…but it’s Glasgow, which means that one corner is soaked in sunlight and the next is soaking wet.
Here is Styuven’s first full lap of the Glasgow circuit, featuring 11 power spikes over 900 w.
Stuyven – Lap 2
Time: 19:02
Average Power: 366w (4.7w/kg)
Normalized Power: 459w (5.9w/kg)
Normalized Power (NP) is an interesting metric that attempts to better quantify physiological workload in a highly variable power file. In other words, NP better represents how hard a workout is when it includes lots of sprints and coasting.
The Glasgow city circuits led to very high NP numbers because of the many sprints out of corners and subsequent coasting into the next one. NP is not a perfect measure of your actual workload, but on a variable circuit like Glasgow, it is a much better representation of how hard these riders were working.
Neilson Powless was one of the main protagonists of the first few laps in Glasgow, including an attack with 120 km to go through Kelvingrove Park. The American did 8 w/kg for two minutes, including 10 w/kg for 48 seconds, which helped cause a major split in the peloton.
Attacks came and went over the next few laps, but nothing stuck until Alberto Bettiol sprinted into the rain with 55.5 km to go. Belgium was happy to let Tiesj Benoot do the pacemaking in the peloton, and the pace was markedly slower for the first time since the race entered Glasgow. At this point in the race, Stuyven’s NP dropped from 430-460 w per lap to 380-400 w on laps 7 and 8. The fatigue has not just settled in, but it is now soaking into the riders’ muscles via the cold Scottish rain.
The next phase of the race was caused by a crash rather than an attack. When Jhonatan Narváez slid out on a left-hand corner, he was sitting sixth wheel in the remnants of the peloton. The five riders in front of him, coincidentally, were Van der Poel, Van Aert, Pogačar, Benoot, and Mads Pedersen.
Powless chased like mad, and he got within two seconds of the leaders before Van Aert accelerated again. And that was it for Powless and Stuyven. They would remain in and around the chase group for the rest of the race, more than three minutes down on Van der Poel by the finish.
Here is a breakdown of Stuyven’s power, lap by lap, on the Glasgow city circuit.
Stuyven – Glasgow City Circuits
Time: 3:33:43
Average Power: 347w (4.4w/kg)
Normalized Power: 424w (5.4w/kg)
Lap 1: 447 W
Lap 2: 459 W
Lap 3: 450 W
Lap 4: 446 W
Lap 5: 427 W
Lap 6: 434 W
Lap 7: 404 W
Lap 8: 389 W
Lap 9: 369 W
Lap 10: 406 W
At the front of the race, Benoot dropped off the pace while the remaining four continued riding in pursuit of Bettiol. With 22.4 km to go, Van der Poel launched off Pogačar’s wheel and didn’t look back. The Dutchman went full gas for 20-30 seconds at an estimated 1,000-1,200 w.
Using Wout van Aert’s Strava file, we can see the moment that Van der Poel attacked when Van Aert’s cadence kicked up from 90 rpm to over 105 rpm. The Dutchman chose the steepest part of Geroge St. to make his move, and we should’ve seen it coming. Van der Poel’s trademark is a 20 to 40-second sprint at one of the hardest moments of the race when every other rider is hit with deep-set fatigue.
We’ve seen it this year at Milan-San Remo, Strade Bianche, and Amstel Gold — Van Der Poel published his power data from the latter two races.
What makes Mathieu van der Poel the best classics rider in the world is his ability to do 1,000-1,200 w (peak 1,300-1,500 w) for 20-30 seconds after 5-6 hours of racing at an NP of 350-400 w.
Stuyven – Glasgow World Championships Road Race
Time: 6:11:38
Average Power: 325w (4.2w/kg)
Normalized Power: 401w (5.1w/kg)
Van Der Poel – Glasgow World Championships Road Race
Time: 6:07:27
Estimated Average Power: 300-330w
Estimated Normalized Power: 400-420w
Stuyven, who had already dropped from the Van der Poel group, had done 5 hours and 40 minutes at an NP of 400 w by the time MvdP attacked. That’s an energy burn of 1,159 kJs per hour and a total of 6,578 kJs burned in less than six hours of racing. And Stuyven still had 23 km to go.
Despite crashing and nearly breaking his right shoe, Van der Poel went on to win the World Championships road race by almost two minutes. We may never see Van Der Poel’s power data, but we do know that, on his day, he is the strongest bike rider in the world.
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Power Analysis data courtesy of Strava
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