What better way to preview 2025 than to ask Velo’s editorial team for their predictions, hot-takes, and wild and weird theories for the season to come?
This story focuses on road bike trends for 2025. These trend predictions come from attending a range of shows over the year, talking with industry members, and following what we’re seeing at rides and events.
See all of the Velo Predictions for 2025 here.
More aero bikes aren’t coming – Alvin & Josh
Yes, Colnago dropped its new Y1Rs, an aero road bike that we fully anticipate will first to the finish line time and time again this upcoming race season. We also fully anticipate several road bikes to be updated for 2025 that will up the aero road bike space (cough, Cervélo).
I think the key example here is Trek, a company that recently folded its lightweight Emonda road platform into its Madone aero bike. While the convergence may not make much sense against this Y1Rs, blending the two bikes together allows Trek to cut down on the sheer number of variations on the bike it needs to have on hand.
There are a few reasons for this consolidation. Updating one bike every three years is less of a headache than updating two similar bikes every four years. It’s less of a headache for the manufacturer, the bike shops that need to stock them, and honestly, for the end consumer too.
Meanwhile, Colnago isn’t necessarily beholden to the same product cycles — or so the brand tells us — that the big brands are. It gets to optimize and build exactly what it wants to without much, if any, compromise.
So no, I don’t predict a flood of new aero bikes from the brands without dedicated aero bikes already. But I wouldn’t be surprised if those product planners are thinking hard about those gains that come from a specialized platform.
Senior tech editor Josh Ross sees this from a slightly different perspective, however:
Aero vs climbing will they or won’t they? I go back and forth on this constantly but I’m putting my money on a greater split in 2025. Colnago just demonstrated that there’s still space to take aero further and others will follow. I also think there will be some push-back with other brands following the Scott path of ultralight round tube designs.
Despite that, I’m not betting on a new Venge. Specialized is really good at aero while also being really good at lightweight. That combination is a competitive advantage and I don’t see it changing. Why make a heavy bike when you can out-compete an aero bike with your lightweight frame?
Are new Shimano Ultegra and Dura-Ace drivetrains coming? Not quite – Alvin
Shimano released its current-generation Ultegra and Dura-Ace Di2 drivetrains (R8100 and R9200 respectively) in the summer of 2021. The previous generation groups (R8000 and R9100) were introduced in 2017. The groupsets before that? 2013. You can see where I’m going here.
Based on this rotating schedule, we predict Shimano will drop new iterations of its two top-end road bike groupsets in 2025. We anticipate it’ll double down on the current formula: electronic shifting, hydraulic disc brakes almost across the entire lineup, and, based on its steadfast history, forged alloy materials and forged cranks.
We also predict these groupsets stick to 12-speed gearing, and compatibility with Shimano’s existing 12-speed cassettes, chainrings, and chains. What could change, however, is the battery system: Shimano could very well go fully wireless with this new groupset, eschewing the battery that has defined Di2 drivetrains from the start. And fingers crossed, Shimano will offer a reliable native power meter to match SRAM’s offerings.
All that said, we’re not especially confident that a new Ultegra or Dura-Ace group will drop this year. It’s not like the bike industry is flooded by demand at the moment, and I would anticipate Shimano pools its time into adding an electronic version of its XTR, XT, and SLX mountain bike groupsets before new road groupsets.
30mm road tires are right around the corner – Alvin
I praised the virtues of 30 mm road tires in my 10 things I loved in 2024. I dig the tire width so much that I didn’t even mention one specific tire. I expect more and more cyclists will find themselves riding this tire width in 2025, both pros and non-pros alike.
This prediction isn’t necessarily due to the industry going to this tire width on its new bikes; product managers have already chosen their tire spec for this year and years to come. But as new road wheelsets continue to drop, both pros and their admirers alike will find wheels that are a perfect match for these wider tires.
And if you’re already on a 30 mm tire? You’re going to see more options than ever for 32, 35, and even 40 mm wide road tires.
I’m willing to take the slight aero and weight hit for the improved comfort and confidence in tight bunch rides. I suspect you will be, too.
Aero and wind will be at the top of riders’ concerns – Alvin & Josh
In 2024, I predict that you’ll see your first aero sensor. However, I anticipated that more folks would adopt something like an Aerosensor, a dedicated aero tool that in the right context, offers truly valuable data to inform rider position and component choices. I’m not sure that prediction quite became a reality.
What we ended up seeing, instead, is the release of the Wahoo Elemnt Ace. This computer’s release was less than perfect. But what it demonstrates is the potential for wind measurement — and eventually, aerodynamic data — to become more important in 2025.
Here’s Josh’s take on this:
In 2024 I went out with a Gibli Aero sensor to test the find the fastest of 7 aero road helmets. It worked but it was not an easy thing to do. Each run took 6km total and it required holding a static position, it couldn’t be interrupted, and my phone had to keep the screen on with the app loaded. It was an ordeal and it’s still one of the better choices on the market. With the Wahoo Ace now incorporating a wind sensor, plus the ever growing push for better aerodynamics, there’s going to be a breakthrough in 2025.
My prediction is actually that Wahoo gets this figured out first. It doesn’t have to be the most accurate. It just needs to be usable and comparable. That kind of simplicity has Wahoo written all over it.
Unlike Josh, I am personally skeptical of Wahoo making this work in 2025. Current dedicated aero sensors are just too sensitive to angle, outdoor surroundings, and anything else for Wahoo’s computer to supersede them. Nonetheless, both aero and wind will become more important considerations than ever.
A new road helmet from Smith – Josh
This is an oddly specific one but I’m predicting that Smith is going to release a modern and competitive road bike helmet. The last time that the brand had something like that was 2019 and it had mixed reviews. Despite that, I think Smith has the chops to be one of the best.
Bike prices will drop in 2025 – Alvin
Bike prices have soared over the past few years. However, we predict that bike prices will drop in 2025.
It’s no secret that many bike companies are staying on unsold inventory, and demand has largely leveled to pre-pandemic levels. You can point to the additions of higher-end carbon wheels and electronic drivetrains, but there is no avoiding the fact that prices soared because people were willing to pay for them.
We predict prices will drop across just about everything but high-end road bikes. Entry-level and mid-range bikes will have to contend with on-sale inventories from prior years. They’ll also have to compete with ever-growing competition from Chinese manufacturers looking to make an impression in Western markets, and likely lightly-used bikes purchased in the heat of the pandemic sold at a discount.
At the same time, we don’t predict that top-end bike prices will drop all that much, if at all, as well-heeled customers will still pay what they need for the bike they want. But we certainly predict newcomer bike brands to offer similar tech and performance on paper at a budget compared to the legacy bike brands.
Road cranks are going to be shorter in 2025 – Alvin
2024 has been a year of folks being more interested than ever in exploring past areas commonly accepted to be just fine. We predicted narrower handlebars (with flare in the drops) in our 2024 predictions. In 2025, however, we predict legions of folks will go after shorter-length cranks.
Tadej Pogačar rode 165 mm length cranks to win after win this year. The data show that a crank length optimized to 41 percent of your tibia length could be your ideal leg length. At the same time, the data show that most riders are able to adapt to different crank lengths. But for the pros where every bit of margin could make a difference? Finding the right crank length matters.
A shorter crank length may not result in a significant difference in power output, but it can help riders find a hip angle that isn’t as acute at the top of the pedal stroke. And that’s ultimately why more folks will use shorter crank arms on road bikes in 2024: it will likely be more comfortable.
In short, expect your local Facebook Marketplace to be filled with undesirable 170, 172.5, and 175 mm cranks. A crank swap can be expensive after all!