Tactical analysis: With Etna looming, what's next for Simon Yates in the Giro d’Italia?

After a stellar performance in the Giro d’Italia’s Budapest time trial, Simon Yates and his BikeExchange-Jayco squad have stolen a march on a number of key rivals.

Miguel Ángel López has been distanced by almost a minute, while pre-race favorite Richard Carapaz is almost 30 seconds down. As far as curtain-raisers go, Yates and his team are sitting pretty at second overall in the race after just two days of action.

The time gaps may not be terminal at this point, but they leave several riders facing difficult questions. Yates is not alone in that sense, however, as he and his team will need to plot a path towards Verona that potentially avoids or gives away the maglia rosa within the first week.

Also read:

• Startt Gallery : Giro d’Italia stage 2 time trial
• Simon Yates on Giro d’Italia stage win: ‘It was my best time trial ever’
• Giro d’Italia 2022 could be the last for some time for Simon Yates

While the climber and his Australian team currently occupy a position of strength, the next two days, and especially the summit finish at Mount Etna, will prove integral in terms of the team’s tactics and their overall ambitions in the race.

Yates is obviously in fine form, and on his current trajectory, should ride into the maglia rosa atop Etna.

This is not a team that boasts the dependability of a Mikel Nieve in his prime, or the climbing exploits of Esteban Chaves from 2016. There are strong workhorses and reasonable sized engines in the Gerry Ryan stable, but this certainly isn’t the strongest team in the race.

Therefore, the notion of defending the race lead built on just a handful of seconds over Tom Dumoulin all the way until the final week is an unrealistic one. BikeExchange needs to seek time on its rivals, it does not need to seek the maglia rosa and, if it arrives, its best option is to give it away.

“You’ve got to see how things play out on the climb,” Yates’ expert sport director Matt White tells VeloNews. “Who wouldn’t want to be leading the bike race but for how long, you just don’t know. There’s a stage up for grabs, so which GC team wouldn’t be going for it.”

Playing the long game

There is a chance that a break takes both the stage and the jersey on stage 4, while Yates and his rivals duke it out on the final slopes of Etna in a bid to forge time gaps that will only rise to the surface once we hit the final week.

One only needs to scan through the current general classification to see who the potential candidates are. Typically, riders currently at between two to five minutes on GC might be allowed to ride up the road, but there are some key riders higher up who will sense that the true GC teams are reluctant to take control.

“It wouldn’t be the first time that a leader’s jersey has been given away in the first week of a grand tour and then taken back. It’s a long climb,” White says. “We’ve used part of it in 2018 but we’ve never used the full climb before. It’s tough. Some guys here haven’t raced for a month, some raced last weekend, and some are building into the race.

“You’ll get a bit of a lay of the land, but a break could also take the lead. What we do know is that Alpecin won’t have any interest in defending on Etna. So, it will be a bit of a free for all. Things could pan out in a lot of different ways.

“We all know what’s coming and how tough the race is in the back end. We’re thinking of the big picture, and that’s the podium in two and a half weeks.”