Inside the Tour, with John Wilcockson – Sastre vs. Evans showdown the talk of the Tour

The third podium spot is also in play at Saturday’s time trial

By John Wilcockson

The upcoming time-trial battle between Carlos Sastre and Cadel Evans that will decide this 95th Tour de France is the talk of the race — much more than Thursday’s excellent stage victory for Columbia’s Marcus Burghardt in St. Étienne or Friday’s likely bunch finish in Montluçon. Obviously, there’s much speculation whether Evans can overcome his 94-second deficit on the race leader in the 53km time trial from Cérilly to St. Amand-Montrond on Saturday. But the media are also looking at any angle they can to predict the protagonists’ performances.

For instance, when Sastre came to the “mixed zone” for brief interviews after stage 18 on Thursday evening, a reporter from Britain’s ITV News asked: “Carlos, I know you work very hard on your psychology in the Team CSC, is there anything you can do to put pressure on Cadel Evans before the time trial?” Sastre, whose command of the English language is not that subtle, clearly didn’t understand the question, but the 33-year-old Spaniard took a shot at an answer anyway.

“The last time trial is very, very hard for the équipe after all the Tour de France,” he said. “[Our] manager says we work really hard for our advantage. I have what I have, and I will fight with that, you know.” In other words, he was saying that he was okay going into the time trial with the 1:34 advantage he has over Evans. No psychology involved.

Not satisfied with Sastre’s answer, the TV reporter tried to put his question another way. “If Evans has any weaknesses what are they, if they exist?” he asked.

A puzzled Sastre replied, “I don’t know.” He then added, “I know who I am, and what I want, and who’s my team, eh? I look for this. And on my side there’s my team, and they’re a special train … I have them. So we figure out what assistance I need. And we look if [our opponents] have weaknesses or if they are strong, and we work it our way.”

Sastre’s youngest teammate at CSC-Saxo Bank, Andy Schleck, who easily defended his white jersey when his one remaining rival in the under-26 competition Roman Kreuziger attacked on Thursday, was asked if Sastre is strong enough to win the Tour. He simply said “I think Carlos is really strong. He’s been here many years and he worked so hard for this [yellow jersey], and finally he get it.”

It will be hard for Evans to take it away from him. His Silence-Lotto team manager Marc Sergeant was asked if he was content with his team leader’s position coming out of the Alps.

“Yes and no,” he said. “Before Alpe d’Huez he was at eight seconds, now he’s at 1:34. That’s a big difference. The time trial is Cadel’s big specialty, but Carlos Sastre is not bad either. The gap is a little big to be happy; it’s right on the limit.”

While the spotlight is on Evans and Sastre for the overall victory, Saturday’s time trial will also see four riders battling for third place on the Paris podium: CSC’s Fränk Schleck, Gerolsteiner’s Bernhard Kohl, Rabobank’s Denis Menchov and Garmin-Chipotle’s Christian Vande Velde. The relative positions of these riders on GC is:
? 1.Schleck
? 2. Kohl, at 0:01
? 3. Menchov, at 1:06
? 4. Vande Velde, at 3:08.

In the first week’s time trial at Cholet, over 29km, their performances were
? 1. Menchov, 36:18
? 2. Vande Velde, at 0:03
? 3. Kohl, at 1:13
? 4. Schleck, at 1:40.

Should the same performances apply over 53km, the relative results would be
? 1. Menchov
? 2. Vande Velde, at 0:05
? 3. Kohl, at 2:13
? 4. Schleck, at 3:02.

Applied to the current GC, such an outcome to Saturday’s time trial would result in Menchov finishing third overall, Kohl fourth (1:08 behind), Schleck fifth (1:56 back) and Vande Velde sixth (2:07 back). However, three of these riders are not at their best at the end of this debilitating Tour. Menchov was struggling at times in the Alps and is clearly very tired; Kohl only just made it to the Alpe d’Huez finish line with the other contenders, and is even more fatigued than the seasoned Menchov; and Schleck has done enormous work for his CSC team and had the stress of defending the yellow jersey for two days.

The other rider, the surprising Vande Velde, has gotten stronger as the race progressed. If he hadn’t have crashed on the descent into Jausiers on Tuesday, and lost approximately two minutes, he would be favored to finish on the final podium. As it is, he will have to ride the time trial of his life to achieve that.

When I chatted with him after Thursday’s stage, Vande Velde said that he has had a chance to recover a bit from the Alps. He added, “I was nervous about today, [especially] that second-to-last climb. But it was a great day. Nice roads, nice weather. Everyone’s pretty chilled. I’m happy, but tired you know.”

Vande Velde said he hadn’t pre-ridden Saturday’s time trial course, but he would be getting detailed information from his Garmin team manager Jonathan Vaughters. “Our fearless leader Jonathan is riding it tomorrow,” he said, and then quipped, “It’s really pretty funny. He’s riding it in full gear. I want [to know] his time, too!”