With the Tour de France hype starting to boil over, we dive into the power numbers of Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and more.
There is no doubt that Pogačar is the five-star favorite to win what would be his fourth yellow jersey. But who can challenge him, if anyone?
Vingegaard is the first (and perhaps only) rider that comes to mind. The winner of the 2022 and 2023 Tour de France, Vingegaard remains the only rider to ever beat Pogačar at the Tour.
But we cannot forget about Evenepoel, who chased down Pogačar along with Mathias Skjelmose at the Amstel Gold Race.
Of all the uphill attacks that Pogačar has made in 2025, there are only three riders who have been able to get back to his wheel: Mathieu Van der Poel (Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix), Filippo Ganna (Milan-San Remo), and Evenepoel (Amstel Gold Race).
There are also the underdogs, some of the best cyclists in the world, but they have not yet ascended to the same tier as Tour de France, world, and Olympic champions Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel.
João Almeida just won the Tour de Suisse, coming back from a multi-minute deficit and winning the final stage’s mountain time trial. Primož Roglič has five grand tour titles to his name, but never the Tour de France. He comes to the 2025 edition following a disappointing Giro d’Italia, which he abandoned during Stage 16.
But Roglič may have an ace up his sleeve, and that ace is named Florian Lipowitz. The 24-year-old German just finished third at the Critérium du Dauphiné, where he dropped Evenepoel and Matteo Jorgenson on the uphill finishes. Having only been a professional cyclist since 2022, we still don’t know the limits of Lipowitz.
In this article, we’ll dive into the power data of the Tour’s top GC contenders.
The Best Climbing Performances of 2025
When predicting the Tour de France, we have to focus on the mountain stages. Of course, the Tour can be lost with a crash or flat in the sprint/rolling stages, but it will be won in the mountains. Specifically, the Tour will be won on 20-60 minute climbs.
Unsurprisingly, Pogačar has shown the best numbers on climbs of this length. At the Critérium du Dauphiné, Pogačar spent nearly 20 minutes at ~7.1w/kg to win Stage 6 at Combloux. He put more than a minute into Vingegaard and nearly two minutes into Evenepoel that day.
Pogačar – Stage 6 Climb to Combloux
Time: 19:26
Estimated Average Power: ~460w (7.1w/kg)
First 6 min of the climb: 2,187 Vm/h at ~7.7w/kg
This is the best 20-minute climbing performance we’ve seen so far in 2025, which is a great indication of what we could see on stage 13 of the Tour when there is a time trial up the 8.1km Peyragudes.
While Vingegaard has yet to display a Pogačar-beating climbing performance this year, he did show fantastic legs on Valmeinier 1800. Just one day after being crushed on the climb to Combloux, Vingegaard spent more than 20 minutes at 6.8-6.9w/kg following Pogačar on Valmeinier 1800.
While the Dane couldn’t follow Pogačar’s initial acceleration, he held the world champion’s gap at 10-20 seconds for the middle 11km of the climb. Based on our calculations, Pogačar was riding at nearly 7w/kg during this middle portion of the climb, and Vingegaard was barely losing one second per kilometer.
It’s official. Meet our 8 riders for the Tour de France. #TheSwarm #TDF2025 pic.twitter.com/ZP7wYVGz2U
— Team Visma | Lease a Bike (@vismaleaseabike) June 24, 2025
Due to his injury-affected off-season and compacted race schedule, we haven’t seen a great climbing performance from Evenepoel this year. He is certainly in fine form – having notched three wins in just two months of racing – but his climbing prowess is currently unknown.
We do have a much better picture of Almeida and Lipowitz, who just did some of their best-ever climbing performances in the past few weeks. Almeida’s TT win at the Tour de Suisse was one of the best climbing performances of the year, and Lipowitz was the third-best climber behind Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Dauphiné.
Best 20-60 min Climbs in 2025
Pogačar: ~7.1w/kg for 19:26 on the climb to Combloux (Stage 6 of the Critérium du Dauphiné)
Vingegaard: ~6.9w/kg for 20-25 minutes on Valmeinier 1800 (Stage 7 of the Critérium du Dauphiné)
Evenepoel: ???
Almeida: ~6.8w/kg for 27:33 on the Stockhütte (Tour de Suisse Stage 8 ITT)
The biggest question mark here is Evenepoel, but we saw him in similar pre-Tour form in 2024. In fact, Evenepoel hadn’t even performed above 6w/kg for 30+ minutes in 2024—and then at the Tour, he put together multiple ~6.5w/kg for 20-40 minute performances that helped him finish 3rd in the GC. While Evenepoel’s climbing form is a bit unknown, his time trial performance is almost guaranteed.
GC Contenders in Time Trials
Evenepoel is the best time trial rider in the world; not just among the GC contenders, but among everyone. Only two weeks ago, he destroyed the field in the Dauphiné TT. In just 17.4 kilometers, he put 20 seconds into Vingegaard and 48 seconds into Pogačar.
Perhaps the biggest surprise from that results sheet was Vingegaard who has certainly improved his time trial game in the past few seasons. The Dane is not just an uphill specialist – he is one of the best TT riders in the world on all sorts of terrain. Pogačar had a shocking TT at the Dauphiné, and his only other TT of the year was a flat 12.2km loop at the UAE Tour. He finished third that day, finishing with an average speed of 55.4 kph and proving that his time trial setup is not the problem.
I don’t get how people are not hyped for this year’s Tour de France…
We literally get this year almost every single big star without injuries and in full health battling for the success.
For GC: Pogačar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Roglič, Almeida, Jorgenson, Lipowitz…
For punchy… pic.twitter.com/x8MOOrsyj0— Lukáš Ronald Lukács (@lucasaganronald) June 23, 2025
There are two time trials in this year’s Tour, and they offer completely different profiles.
Stage 5’s TT is a flat 33 km route around Caen, while Stage 13’s uphill TT is basically a 20-minute w/kg test. Evenepoel could certainly take a minute in the first TT, but Pogačarand Vingegaard should have the upper hand on Peyragudes. As for the exact time gaps, it is anyone’s guess.
Whatever happens, don’t forget about Almeida who could end up on the podium of either (or both) time trial.
Best Time Trials in 2025
Pogačar: 3rd (Stage 2 of the UAE Tour) and 4th (Stage 4 of the Critérium du Dauphiné)
Vingegaard: 5th (Stage 5 of Volta ao Algarve) and 2nd (Stage 4 of the Critérium du Dauphiné)
Evenepoel: 1st (Stage 5 of Tour de Romandie), 1st (Stage 4 of the Critérium du Dauphiné)
Almeida: 1st (Stage 8 of Tour de Suisse), 2nd (Stage 5 of Tour de Romandie), 2nd (Stage 1 of Itzulia Basque Country)
Sprints and Punchy Climbs
Some say that this year’s Tour de France doesn’t start until stage 12, the first major summit finish of the race atop the 13.6km Hautacam. Before then are 10 stages for the sprinters and puncheurs (plus the stage 5 TT). There are 33 classified climbs in the first 11 stages of the Tour, but most of them will only last 2-5 minutes.
You could say these climbs are perfect for Pogačar, who has destroyed the peloton on 2-5 minute climbs all season. The world champion set the Cipressa KOM on his way to finishing 3rd at Milan-San Remo, but his explosive power performances in April were even more impressive.
Pogačar set record climbing times on the Kwaremont and Koppenberg at the Tour of Flanders, and La Redoute at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. By our calculations, Pogačar was pushing well over 8w/kg during these efforts, a level that no one could match, not even MvdP or Evenepoel.
Pogačar – Fastest Time Ever on La Redoute
Time: 3:58
Estimated Average Power: ~550w (8.4w/kg)
Vingegaard has improved his explosive power output over the past few years, but we don’t always see it until he is sprinting against Pogačar at the Tour.
However, we did get a glimpse of Vingegaard’s punchiness on stage 1 of the Dauphiné when he attacked over the top of a 600m climb. The Dane’s attack drew out the winning breakaway, and he was even able to sprint past Van der Poel to take second on the stage behind Pogačar. While many will be picking the world champion to win the punchy stages at the Tour, don’t underestimate Vingegaard’s ability.
Similarly, Evenepoel has shown some of the best punch in the world when he is on his day. In his first race of 2025, he outsprinted Wout Van Aert to win De Brabantse Pijl. In terms of 10 sec to 2min power, Evenepoel was nearly unbeatable that day.
Like Vingegaard, Almeida has developed a very strong punch, one that he has used to win six races in 2025. While the mountains could certainly decide the GC, there are minutes to be taken in the opening 11 stages of the Tour when you factor in time bonuses and splits in the peloton.
Primož Roglič at altitude training camp in Tignes preparing for the Tour de France, riding Col de l’Iseran and reconning Col de la Loze ♂️ #roglic pic.twitter.com/aeD45F08RQ
— Noora cycling (@NooraCycling) June 24, 2025
Tadej Pogačar is the top GC favorite for the Tour de France – that’s what the data say, and so does the eye test. He showed good form at the Dauphiné, but so did Vingegaard and Evenepoel. The latter two were less consistent, but they could be saving their legs for the Tour.
In brief flashes, both Vingegaard and Evenepoel have been better than Pogačar. For the Dane, it was stage 11 of last year’s Tour where he caught and then outsprinted Pogačar in Le Lioran. Evenepoel has crushed Pogačar in time trials, but can that give him a sufficient buffer at the Tour?
And we must not forget about Almeida, Lipowitz, and Roglič.
Vingegaard’s first Tour de France win came when he and Roglič (his teammate at the time) attacked Pogačar relentlessly. If Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe employs a similar two-leader strategy – keep a close eye on stage 18 and 19 – we could see the same scenario again.
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Power Analysis data courtesy of Strava
Strava sauce extension
Riders:
Tadej Pogačar
Jonas Vingegaard
Primož Roglič
Remco Evenepoel
João Almeida