Picking the Tour de France Podium: Who Can Rip Up the 'Big 4' Script?

FLORENCE, Italy (Velo) — The 2024 Tour de France grand départ is here.

The yellow flags are hanging around Florence’s medieval center, the pre-race favorites have said their piece at their press conferences and their pristine bikes are ready to roll.

If Michelangelo’s Davide could move off his plinth, he’d hot-foot it to Saturday’s stage 1 start in the city’s Parco delle Cascine and cheer with the thousands of other fans.

All that’s left to do for racers is pin on numbers, wait for the flag to drop and start cranking out the 111th Tour de France.

We all know who the contenders are, with Tadej Pogačar starting as pre-race favorite, followed by defending champion Jonas Vingegaard.

But the sport’s most prestigious race is no easy thing to predict. Fortunes can change in the blink of an eye or a moment’s inattention, form can wax and wane.

Who will be pulling on the maillot jaune in Nice? Ahead of the race start, here are Velo writers’ podium predictions.

Jim Cotton: Pogi Show Rolls On

Tadej Pogačar will have all but won the Tour de France as early as the first week. He’ll blow at least one challenging member of the “Big 4” out of the water in the gruesomely mountainous grand départ, put a wedge of time into the others over the Galibier on stage 4, and limit any damage in the stage 7 time trial. UAE Team Emirates’ armada of superdomestiques will slap down any rider audacious enough to attack Pogi from there until Nice.

Sure, we don’t know how well rested and recovered Pogačar will be after his Giro d’Italia exploits, but given the status of his bent and buckled rivals, he’s still likely to be in better shape come the Tour’s final stampede down the Alps.

Jonas Vingegaard won’t finish, Remco Evenepoel will blow early in week three, and Roglič will be left best-of-the rest.

Carlos Rodríguez will be there to mop up the leftovers.

Jim’s Top 3

1  Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
2 Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
3 Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)

Andy McGrath: Roglič Gets His Revenge

Tadej Pogačar’s daring double attempt reminds me of when Alberto Contador came close in 2011 after dominating the Giro d’Italia (it was later awarded to Michele Scarponi due to the Spaniard’s clenbuterol positive). Come the Tour, it wasn’t quite so straightforward. He lost time in an opening-day crash and though he animated the race in the mountains, he was missing something, not at his effervescent best.

Appearances can be deceptive and I think the Giro took a bit more out of Pogačar than many cycling.

No doubt the Slovenian will be very good, but I think it won’t quite be enough. Especially if he takes on the Tour like he normally does, racing like an eager puppy, going all out for early stage wins like they’re fluffy yellow tennis balls bouncing around. I think he might burn-out in the tough third week. The Col de la Loze capitulation is still in my mind, twelve months on. Pogi wins big, with great verve, but when he is caput, he’s really caput too.

Maybe it’s the contrarian in me, betting against Pogačar. I reckon his older compatriot Primož Roglič and his team will put the pressure on in the mountains and be marginally better against the clock, having just enough to edge him out. I can see a redux of 2020, a repeat of the Slovenian face-off.

Roglič is one of the most consistent stage race winners of the generation, and his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe packs a punch: Vlasov and Hindley are top-tier mountain domestiques, grand tour stars in their own right; Bob Jungels is a Monument champion. Marco Haller is a smart, strong, canny road captain.

In contrast, as formidable as Visma-Lease a Bike were in 2023, they’ve had no end of adversity and misfortune to disrupt Vingegaard adversely. I think he might win a stage, but he won’t finish on the podium.

I think it’s the year of Roglič, the Tour where things finally go right for him all the way to the finish. I’m sure it will be close and there will be drama though. It’s never straightforward with Primoz Roglič.

Andy’s Top 3

1 Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
2 Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
3 Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates)

Shane Stokes: No Stopping Pogačar

The Giro/Tour double has only been achieved by seven riders in history, and hasn’t been done in 26 years. But this year things could change and, with the Tour about to start, I believe they will.

There are two reasons for this. Tadej Pogačar has been in supreme form this year, winning already 14 times since the start of the season. His Giro d’Italia was exemplary, with six stage victories and a winning margin just four seconds shy of ten minutes. That’s the biggest gap since Vittorio Adorni’s runaway success in 1965.

He didn’t exactly hold back during the race, but was so far above the others anyway that the only digging deep he did was when he was burying his rivals.

Feedback from himself and UAE Team Emirates is that he has fully recovered and while the true state of his reserves may only be fully apparent in week three, his on/off racing programme this year has been specifically designed to keep him as fresh as possible.

“It’s looked like I’ve made a step forward since the Giro, and my shape is even better than what I expected,” he said this week, according to Eurosport. “I’ve done some good training, and I’ve tested my legs a little bit and, to be honest, I have never felt so good on the bike.”

The second reason for Pogačar’s strong chances of yellow are the compromised preparation of his rivals. Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel were all involved in the disastrous Itzulia Basque Country crash on April 4, with Roglič the only one to escape fractures.

Vingegaard is the strongest of the three and was the most badly affected. He might ride into form, but Pogačar will be determined to take time out of him early on and, providing he steers clear of crashes, should have the form, the momentum, and the confidence to take the third Tour win of his career.

Shane’s Top 3

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
3. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)

Andrew Hood: Can’t Bet Against Momentum

Momentum is the name of the game in the Tour de France, and a few riders bring it to this year’s decision.

First off Pogačar. He’s touched by the gods. Even COVID-19 won’t slow him down.

There’s much being made about the elusive Giro-Tour “wall” that will stop him cold in this Tour, and that his legs will simply run out of steam. That won’t happen with Pogačar because he won the Giro with one leg. He still has another one he hasn’t even used yet.

Other momentum riders include Matteo Jorgenson. The Idahoan has had a Pogi-like spring campaign, with big rides at Paris-Nice, the spring classic, and the Critérium du Dauphiné. Form feeds form, and Jorgenson will be riding with nothing to lose.

The same goes for Adam Yates, who will win this Tour if Pogačar does stutter. Carlos Rodríguez is another rider surging into form just when it counts.

While Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel deserve endless kudos for clawing back into shape to start this Tour, I have a hunch all three will see the elastic snap at some point during this Tour. It might not happen until well into the third week, and perhaps even on the final TT.

Big Mo will win this Tour, and Pogačar has the racing gods at his back.

Hoody’s Top 3:

1. Pogačar
2. Adam Yates
3. Matteo Jorgenson