MONT-DORE, France (Velo) — The good news? Primož Roglič didn’t crash in the opening 10 days of the Tour de France.
The bad news? Beating Tadej Pogačar looks all but impossible, at least for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe as the Tour hits the halfway point.
“You have to be realistic. Sure, you can dream, but we also know what we’re working with. That’s why we say the podium is a big goal for us,” Red Bull Rolf Aldag told Velo. “We believe in it. It’s within reach.
“But riding Pogačar off the wheel? That would be overly optimistic.”
Red Bull has been uncharacteristically quiet in the opening 10 days of the Tour, and that’s just fine for Aldag and Red Bull staffers.
Last year’s high-profile rollout of the Red Bull brand ended with Roglič crashing and burning by this point of last year’s Tour.
To still be in the mix after three straight Tour DNF’s from Roglič is a bit of a victory for the budding super team.
“We accepted from the beginning that if we lost a few seconds here or there, it wouldn’t decide the podium in Paris,” Aldag told Velo. “We’re rating mental freshness quite highly, especially after what we learned last year. Back then, we were probably too eager, pushing too hard, too early.”
Roglic is upright, and Florian Lipowitz is inside the top 10. The hardest part of the Tour is still hidden in the Pyrénées and Alps.
Aldag says anything is possible, well, just about everything.
‘It will be two races in one’
Roglič isn’t blowing up the Tour this year, but more importantly, the Tour hasn’t blown him up.
“Primož looks good. He’s stable. And more importantly, the racing hasn’t killed him.” Aldag said at the Red Bull team bus. “We’re still targeting the podium.
“Some people might think it’s unrealistic, but look at last year, third place in Paris finished more than nine minutes down,” Aldag said. “Right now we’re, what, three minutes off? We could still lose five minutes and be on the podium.”
Aldag expects two races within one in the brutal, climb-heavy second half of the Tour.
The first half is the down-to-the-bone battle between Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard for the yellow jersey.
Primož to RTV SLO :”Yes, it was a little better. Although very difficult, I am very happy. The pace was very fast from the start. Natural selection, in the end we remained the best. One day of rest is not enough, it could have been more. More than welcome.”#roglic #rogla
— Debby (@Debby_Drckx) July 14, 2025
Behind those two, there will be a multiple-rider tug-of-war for the final podium spot.
And that’s where Aldag believes there’s wiggle room for Red Bull to make a play.
“This Tour might end up having two races: one for the victory and another for the podium. And who knows, those top two guys still have to make it to Paris,” Aldag said.
“One bad day, whether it’s heat, nutrition, hydration—anything can happen,” Aldag said. “Internally, we’ve set some benchmarks for where we want to be. Best case? We’re close. Worst case? We’re still in it.
“We definitely don’t think the podium is out of reach.”
Waiting for a miracle
Aldag is realistic enough to know that beating Pogačar straight up is a big ask, but strange things can happen, as Roglic well knows.
“Maybe one day, there’s that perfect moment when the race opens up. Maybe there’s a standoff, where guys start looking at each other, and someone needs to close the gap.
“That could be the moment to strike, maybe for us, for Remco, for anyone still in the hunt who has the guts to race when the chance presents itself.”
If Roglič can stay upright all the way to Paris, then anything is possible.