For the last few years, the Vuelta a España has been the most exciting grand tour of the season. And this year is shaping up to be no different. Jonas Vingegaard enters as the betting favorite, but he was beaten straight up by João Almeida earlier this year. Juan Ayuso could be option number one for UAE Team-Emirates XRG, but the Spaniard only has two race days since the Giro. Felix Gall and Giulio Ciccone could challenge for the podium, but could either of them take home the red jersey?
Let us not forget the underdogs that could spring a surprise. Tom Pidcock has said that he’s aiming for the GC, and according to the Arctic Race of Norway, he is in fine form. Antoni Tiberi, Jai Hindley, and Derek Gee are amongst the conversation, and we can never forget about Sepp Kuss. No one expected the American to win the 2023 Vuelta a España, but that didn’t stop him.
With the Vuelta beginning in late August, we have already seen these riders perform throughout most of the season. Some of them have earned spectacular results, while others have been floundering.
We’ve combed through hundreds of race results and power files from the Vuelta favorites. In this article, we’ll dive into the power data of the Vuelta’s top GC contenders.
The Best Climbing Performances of 2025
When predicting the Vuelta a España, we must focus on the mountain stages. The Vuelta is filled with steep summit finishes, including l’Angliru on stage 13. While there are plenty of rolling and medium mountain stages, the Vuelta will surely be won in the high mountains.
Efforts lasting 20-60 minutes will separate the good from the great at this year’s Vuelta, and we’ve already seen quite the showing from the GC contenders. Vingegaard has produced the best long climbing performance of the contenders with his Mont Ventoux effort on stage 16 of the Tour de France. The Dane dropped everyone but Pogačar on the way to the summit, crushing the climbing record and producing an estimated 6.5w/kg for 54 minutes.
Vingegaard – Mont Ventoux
- Time: 54:32
- Estimated Average Power: ~400w (~6.5w/kg)
- VAM: 1,734 Vm/h
Vingegaard’s Tour de France level is head and shoulders above Almeida and Ayuso’s career-best performances. But the Dane didn’t perform that highly in every single mountain stage. On Hautacam, Vingegaard only produced an estimated 6.3w/kg for 37 minutes. That is something that Almeida and Ayuso are capable of.
Almeida dominated the Tour de Suisse time trial, knocking out ~6.8w/kg for over 27 minutes. Ayuso has not done a performance like that in 2025 (maybe not even in his career), but he has come close. The young Spaniard has produced ~6.7w/kg for around 20 minutes, but is that enough to challenge Vingegaard and Almeida at the Vuelta?
Vingegaard has certainly shown the best peak climbing level this year, but he has been far less consistent than Almeida. And how could we forget stage 4 of this year’s Paris-Nice where Almeida beat Vingegaard on the climb to La Loge des Gardes? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vingegaard win a summit finish at the Vuelta, and then get dropped by Almeida or Ayuso the very next day. All three riders could be trading attacks throughout the grand tour.
Best 20-60 min Climbs in 2025
- Vingegaard: ~6.5w/kg for 54 minutes on Mont Ventoux (stage 16 of the Tour de France)
- Almeida: ~6.8w/kg for 27:33 on the Stockhütte (Tour de Suisse stage 8 ITT)
- Ayuso: ~6.7w/kg for 19:39 on the Frontignano (stage 6 of Tirreno-Adriatico)
GC Contenders in Time Trials
This year’s Vuelta is short on time trial kilometers, which is good news for Gall and Ciccone. Time trials are the Achilles heel of Gall, who lost three minutes in the Tour’s 33km Stage 5 TT in Caen. Gall rarely comes top 40 in a time trial, and more often, he loses minutes in the GC.
The first race against the clock in this year’s Vuelta is a 21km team time trial on stage 5. It is a flat route around Figueres, which means that we’re not expecting major GC gaps, especially amongst the top contenders. Visma-Lease a Bike will be one of the favorites, but so will UAE Team Emirates-XRG.
We’ll have to wait two weeks until the next time trial, stage 18’s TT in Valladolid. Again, it is a very flat route with only one short climb. The GC gaps will be minimal, but Gall could still lose a minute or two against Vingegaard, Almeida, and Ayuso. But at that point in the Vuelta, the GC gaps could be massive after so many steep uphill finishes.
Normally, we would expect Vingegaard, Ayuso, and Almeida to finish within a few seconds of each other in these TTs. But Vingegaard and Almeida had somewhat of poor showings in the first Tour de France TT, finishing 13th and 8th, respectively, in stage 5. However, they were beaten that day by a level of competition that will not be present at the Vuelta; such as riders like Remco Evenepoel, Edoardo Affini, Florian Lipowitz, and Tadej Pogačar.
Best Flat Time Trials in 2025
- Vingegaard: 5th (stage 5 of Volta ao Algarve) and 2nd (stage 4 of the Critérium du Dauphiné)
- Almeida: 2nd (stage 5 of Tour de Romandie), 2nd (stage 1 of Itzulia Basque Country)
- Ayuso: 2nd (stage 1 of Tirreno-Adriatico), 10th and 22nd in the Giro TTs (stages 2 and 10)
Sprints and Punchy Climbs
You could certainly argue that there are more puncheur stages than climber stages in this year’s Vuelta. Many of the uphill finishes are softer than expected, with average gradients between 5% and 7%. There are also plenty of stages that feature a punchy climb or medium mountain less than 20km from the finish. While the GC gaps on these stages could be minimal, they could also expose tired legs or a moment of weakness.
Vingegaard has developed a world-class punch, and no place was that more evident than this year’s Tour de France. He attacked and followed Pogačar on the steepest 1-2 minute climbs of the race, earning two podium finishes in the first four stages. The Dane is able to push nearly 10w/kg for two minutes, which could be a dangerous asset at the Vuelta. Even his sprints were enough to drop most riders on a summit finish. The only reason that Vingegaard didn’t win a handful of stages at this year’s Tour is the existence of Tadej Pogačar.
Vingegaard – Tour de France Stage 4: Ramp Saint-Hilaire
- Time: 1:57
- Average Power: 585w (~9.5w/kg)
- VAM: ~2,775 Vm/h
Almeida has also improved his punch, and he was actually the rider who led out Pogačar’s attack on the Ramp Saint-Hillaire. The Portuguese rider has won six races in 2025, and while the mountains could certainly decide the GC, there are minutes to be won or lost all throughout the Vuelta. Almeida showed a new level of punchiness at this year’s Tour – similar to Vingegaard – showing that he can drop the best riders in the world on short and steep climbs.
Ayuso possesses an incredibly strong punch and sprint, perhaps the best of the GC contenders. Before he DNfed the Giro, Ayuso won stage 7 on a steep uphill finish to Tagliacozzo. He dropped some of the best puncheurs in the world that day, including Primož Roglič. However, the level of competition at the Giro will not be the same as the Vuelta, so it remains to be seen if Ayuso can drop an in-form Vingegaard.
In addition to the main GC contenders, there are a few honorable mentions to keep on your radar. Pidcock, Kuss, Tiberi, Hindley, and Gee all have a chance of finishing on the GC podium. Any of them could win a stage, or even multiple. A GC romp isn’t expected, but it certainly wouldn’t be a shock seeing as how the Vuelta has played out in recent years.
Perhaps the most prominent dark horses are Ciccone and Gall. Few expected Gall to finish top 5 at the Tour de France, and maybe a handful of loyal tifosi expected Ciccone to drop everyone at the Clasica San Sebastian – but that’s exactly what they did. Both riders have shown flashes of world-class brilliance this season. The bigger question is, can they put it all together for three weeks in a row?
Power Analysis data courtesy of Strava
Strava sauce extension
Riders:
- Jonas Vingegaard
- João Almeida
- Juan Ayuso