Who will win the 2025 Vuelta a España?
We’d wager more than 80 percent of answers will say Jonas Vingegaard.
But it certainly won’t be a one-man show for the next three weeks in Spain.
Juan Ayuso and João Almeida form a UAE Emirates-XRG double-threat that could dominate the Dane – if they overcome any intra-team tension, that is.
Below this big three, the GC should be wild and wide open.
The absence of grand tour galácticos Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel, and Primož Roglič means the narrative will be altogether different from the recent Tour de France.
Riders who are returning from injury, out of form, or hunting a breakout result will see a rare chance at a GC top-5.
From broken back Basque Mikel Landa to none other than #GCKuss, there’s a whole echelon of classification contenders to watch out for.
Racing starts this Saturday, August 23.
Here’s how the favorites, outsiders, and wildcards stack up in the race for the red jersey.
Vuelta a España ranking, per Velo:
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐: Jonas Vingegaard
⭐⭐⭐⭐: Juan Ayuso, João Almeida
⭐⭐⭐: Mikel Landa, Felix Gall
⭐⭐: Matteo Jorgenson, Antonio Tiberi, Ben O’Connor
⭐: Jai Hindley, Egan Bernal, Sepp Kuss, Tom Pidcock, Giulio Pelizzari, Giulio Ciccone
The five-star super favorite: Jonas Vingegaard
Let’s not deny it. Jonas Vingegaard should be so far in front of his rivals at this Vuelta a España he might move into “Tadej at the Tour” territory.
Vingegaard is the one rider who’s been close to supreme Tadej Pogačar in the past five seasons.
And while the 28-year-old was again reduced to shadow status at the Tour de France, he boasted his best power numbers and a new attacking punch.
Without the problem of Pogi, the door is wide open for Vingegaard to win his first grand tour in more than two years.
The Tour-Vuelta double should be no problem, either.
Sorry #GCKuss followers, but we all know Vingegaard could have won both the Vuelta and the Tour in 2023 if team politik hadn’t come into play.
Visma-Lease a Bike isn’t treating this Vuelta as a late-summer vacation, either.
The “Killer Bees” are sending Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson to support Vinny for a triple header with the potential to lock out the podium.
Anything less than a win for Vingegaard will be a loss.
The four-star double threat: Juan Ayuso, João Almeida
Juan Ayuso and Joao Almeida: They’ve got all the talent, all the climbing punch, and all the racing smarts.
But will they actually make it to Madrid? And will they play nice along the way?
Ayuso and Almeida are the great unknowns of this Vuelta a España. They both DNF’d their last two grand tours.
And while COVID, crashes and rogue bee stings are far from the riders’ faults, it puts a question over their potential to match previous bests. Ayuso was third at the 2022 Vuelta a España, Almeida fourth at last year’s Tour de France.
UAE Emirates-XRG will be watching its Vuelta leaders with bated breath. There’s prime potential for intra-team rivalry between this historically troublesome tandem.
Without Pogačar, Ayuso and Almeida have a very rare chance at outright GC leadership.
Winning UAE’s first grand tour sans Pogi would earn a blockbuster bonus when Mauro Gianetti dishes out the end-of-season pay packets.
Victory in Madrid would assert authority in the stupidly busy GC stable at UAE Emirates-XRG. For Ayuso, it might add a few digits to his rumored contract negotiations, too.
UAE Emirates-XRG might hope “the road decides” who of Ayuso and Almeida earns the front seat of the team bus early into the race for red.
Otherwise, its biggest enemy could be itself, not Jonas Vingegaard.
The rest: US superdomestiques and recovering team leaders
Two of the Vuelta a España’s prime climbers were ruled out of the race this week.
Derek Gee wasn’t selected by Israel-Premier Tech and unfit Richard Carapaz decided to DNS.
Without Gee and Carapaz, there’s a hot mess of riders who could hit the top-5 or even the podium when the Vuelta reaches Madrid.
On paper, Mikel Landa is the pick of the bunch. The Basque veteran gobbles up grand tour top-10s like they’re tapa.
But is Landismo recovered from the broken back he sustained in a brutal crash at the Giro? And is he fit for three weeks of steeps?
A very low-key comeback at Vuelta a Burgos suggests Landa has got work to do.
Felix Gall is maybe next best in the Vuelta’s big tangle of team captains.
The Austrian is the center of Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale’s ambitions after he rode to fifth at the Tour de France without anybody even noticing.
But can Gall double-up? His Tour-Vuelta double in 2024 was disappointing.
Or how about a U.S. winner?
It’s not entirely out of the question.
2023 Vuelta a España champion Sepp Kuss will be serving drinks to Jonas Vingegaard alongside Visma-Lease a Bike’s perennial MVP Matteo Jorgenson.
If Vingegaard’s Vuelta goes off the rails, Kuss and Jorgenson have all the capacity for a raid on the red jersey.
But don’t expect any 2023-style mutiny.
The rest: Backing up big claims and big rides
A GC podium would be huge for Jorgenson, whose grand tour best is 8th last year at the Tour de France.
Like Jorgenson, Antonio Tiberi has an outside chance at the top-3.
The controversial Italian leads a strong Bahrain Victorious block and has been bullish in bigging himself up in the pre-Vuelta media rounds.
And lastly, let’s not forget Ben O’Connor.
The affable Aussie defied the odds for Decathlon-Ag2r last year with his 13 days in the maillot rojo. He was only 24 hours away from a top-10 for Jayco-AlUla at this year’s Tour de France, too.
But how committed are O’Connor’s wingmen at Jayco-AlUla?
Eddie Dunbar and Chris Harper might have already half checked out now they’ve signed to ride for Q36.5 Pro Cycling in 2026.